The study was published by international ratings agency, Moody’s.
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is the revised free trade agreement (FTA) without the United States.
All 11 remaining members of the TPP excluding the U.S. is party to this document.
Analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) finds that the CPTPP will generate real income gains of US$157 billion for member countries, compared with US$465 billion from the original TPP.
PIIE also found that the lost trade opportunities will be felt most in Vietnam, Malaysia and Japan because these countries stood to gain the most from greater access to the US market given the scope of current trade agreements.
MALAYSIA BIGGEST WINNER
However, PIIE said that Malaysia will be the biggest winner from CPTPP, as the deal will provide export access into new markets including Canada, Peru and Mexico benefiting palm oil, rubber and electronics exporters.
Malaysia is requesting more time to undertake reforms to bolster the commercial orientation of and competition among State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and enhance government procurement procedures.
Moody’s expect Canada and Mexico to attract more investment from CPTPP members, particularly Southeast Asian exporters looking for greater access to the US market — assuming a smooth resolution on the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations.
Moody’s baseline expectation is that Mexico, the U.S. and Canada will reach an agreement and revise the treaty into a NAFTA 2.0.